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                    Negative side-effects of Progressive Evolution
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   It is necessary to analyse the undesirable side-effects of [2]evolution and
   [3]progress in more detail. It is important in that respect to distinguish
   between "[4]blind" evolution, and "[5]controlled" progress driven by
   [6]knowledge. Evolution's [7]trial-and-error mode implies a great amount of
   errors, and therefore a lot of avoidable waste and suffering. However, the
   inefficiency of [8]variation is compensated by the relative efficiency of
   [9]selection, which eliminates inadequate trials at an early stage. The
   controlled mode, guided by knowledge, produces far fewer errors. However, because
   its results are largely shielded from natural selection, its errors will persist
   much longer, with potentially more devastating effects. Ironically, the more fit
   a design, the more flaws it can afford to accumulate before it is eliminated by
   selection.

Parasitism

   One common side-effect of all evolutionary processes is the appearance of
   parasitism. A design (e.g. an organism) that thrives provides plenty of resources
   for another design to profit from. If that second design uses up resources needed
   by the first one, without providing anything in return, the relation is one of
   parasitism. Parasitism in the present sense not only encompasses living
   organisms, such as viruses, bacteria or worms, that live inside another organism,
   but any type of self-sustaining and self-reproducing phenomena that thrive at the
   expense of other self-sustaining phenomena. Examples of parasitic phenomena in
   society are drug addiction, computer viruses, clothes fashions and religious
   cults (
   [10]Cullen, 1999), which maintain and spread at the expense of the addicts,
   computer users, slaves to fashion, or cult members.

   Like all self-reproducing phenomena, "parasites" develop through a positive
   [11]feedback process: the more numerous they are, the faster they spread. This
   vicious cycle must stop, however, when the process runs out of resources: if a
   parasite has exhausted the hosts' reserves, it can no longer grow. In the worst
   case, when the parasite is extremely virulent, this means that the parasite is
   eliminated together with its host. In the more common case, parasite and host
   population reach a relative equilibrium, characterized by an on-going "arms
   race", where the host tries to evolve better defenses to counter the negative
   effects of the parasite, while the parasite tries to evolve more efficient
   strategies to make use of the host's resources. In the longer term, parasitism
   tends to evolve to [12]symbiosis: a state of "peaceful coexistence" or even
   "mutual support", where both parties live together without any one being harmed
   by the other's activities (Dawkins, 1976).

   As the examples of addiction and computer viruses illustrate, contemporary
   progress provides plenty of opportunities for the appearance of new types of
   parasitic phenomena. The abundance of resources produced by a highly
   industrialized society--from agricultural produce to computer processing power to
   leisure time--are guaranteed to invite the evolution of new types of organisms,
   systems, or patterns of behavior that make use of those resources, usually at the
   expense of the people for whom those resources were intended. Moreover, the ever
   increasing [13]speed and efficiency of communications in our society makes it
   ever easier for the parasites to spread, as illustrated by computer viruses and
   the AIDS epidemic.

   Although parasitism explains many of the unexpectedly vicious side-effects of
   [14]progress, our evolutionary understanding of this phenomenon again leads us to
   an optimistic view for the long term: because of natural selection, parasites are
   much more likely to evolve to a benign form than to cripple their hosts (and thus
   reduce their own opportunities). In the meantime, parasites can create a lot of
   suffering, though, and therefore society would do well to monitor and control
   their development in the earliest possible stages. In our present,
   information-based society, the most dangerous parasites may well be the ones that
   infect our mind: misleading ideas ([15]memes) and patterns of behavior that are
   easily transmitted from one individual to another one.

Overshoot

   Another common side-effect of progress is simpler in origin but perhaps more
   subtle in its effects: overshooting. Controlled progress, unlike blind
   trial-and-error, is [16]goal-directed. Most goals are not specific end-points but
   general values: phenomena or states-of-affairs that are considered intrinsically
   good, and for which it is preferable to have more than to have less. In practice,
   however, there are limits beyond which having more of something provides no
   benefits, or can even be harmful. For example, there may be a trade-off where an
   increase in one desirable feature will lead to a decrease in another desirable
   feature. The precise trade-off point is difficult to foresee, and therefore
   goal-directed progress will have a tendency to overshoot: to produce more of a
   particular desirable good or value than is optimal.

   Of course, overshooting can be easily corrected through feedback: once you notice
   that you have gone too far, you move back a little until you are on target.
   However, such a massive and complex process as societal progress has a large
   momentum: it is difficult to slow it down and make it turn back. This is due in
   part to the inertia of desire: it is difficult to convince people that they
   should stop longing for something that they have always considered desirable in
   the past. For example, in a situation where most children die young, it is
   desirable to have more children rather than less, but in an era of vaccination
   and antibiotics, this desire will quickly lead to overpopulation.

   We can distinguish three major types of negative effects produced by
   overshooting:
     * overabundance is simply the observation that there can be too much of a good
       thing. For example, too much food leads to obesity and the concomitant health
       problems; too much communication leads to [17]information overload and the
       resulting stress (see further); too much fertilizer leads to pollution of
       rivers. Overabundance of a particular resource can also invite parasitic
       phenomena, as we noted earlier. For example, too much free time may spur
       behaviors that "kill time" or "create a purpose", such as drug addiction,
       hooliganism, or joining a cult.
     * exhaustion follows from the fact that to produce a valuable good, you
       generally need to consume another valuable good or resource. If the speed of
       production and therefore consumption is excessive, the resource may be
       exhausted, endangering the maintenance of the original good and perhaps many
       other products that depend on it. Resource exhaustion is in general corrected
       rather quickly by a negative feedback mechanism: as the resource becomes more
       scarce, it automatically becomes more valuable, and therefore more effort is
       invested in its conservation and renewal.
     * "[18]pollution" is the general phenomenon that the production of a desirable
       good may, as a side-effect, lead to the production of some undesirable "waste
       products". If the production overshoots its optimal value, the drawbacks of
       the waste product may offset the benefits of the produced good. Here,
       negative feedback correction is unfortunately not so automatic, since the one
       who produces the waste generally does not pay for its clean-up, and therefore
       has little incentive to minimize waste.

   All these examples of overshooting can be corrected by negative feedback. If the
   control system does not react adequately, natural selection will eventually
   eliminate overshooting. Therefore, overshooting will create problems in the short
   term, but these are likely to be solved in the long term. However, powerful
   control systems are likely to have more inertia, and therefore may sustain unfit
   states far longer than natural selection alone would allow. A well-known
   illustration is the "[19]Peter Principle", the observation that in a bureaucracy
   people tend to be promoted up to their level of incompetence. This is a clear
   example of overshooting, where people progress through the ranks on the basis of
   proven success until they reach a level that is too high for their capacities.
   Natural selection would correct this mistake and "demote" the person back to the
   level where he or she is most fit, but the inertia inherent in large
   bureaucracies makes it likely that the person will remain stuck in that position
   for the rest of his or her career. We should make sure that society as a whole
   does not fall into the same trap, and push us into situations that demand more
   than we can comfortably handle.
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   [20]Copyright© 2000 Principia Cybernetica - [21]Referencing this page

   Author
   F. [22]Heylighen,

   Date
   Sep 15, 2000

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                                    [29]Discussion
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     * [30]Information parasites - a request for more investigation, Confirmation by
       Ben Swihart

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