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                                   Societal Progress

   When considering general features such as wealth, knowledge, life expectancy and
   health, it seems that the state of humanity has spectacularly improved over the
   past century (cf. [externallink.GIF] [2]Julian Simon's analysis of
   [externallink.GIF] [3]progress). Yet, the idea of progress seems to have fallen
   into disrepute during the last decades. On the one hand, the postmodernist
   thinkers emphasize the relativity of good and evil, and therefore the relativity
   of progress. According to them, the modern Western way of life is not objectively
   superior to the way of life of more "primitive" cultures, both those living today
   in Third World countries or in the past before industrialization. On the other
   hand, the enormous publicity given to negative events and developments, such as
   pollution, global warming, resource exhaustion, war and terrorism has created a
   generally pessimistic mood, where people expect things to get worse and worse.
   This leads many people to believe that the "noble savage" of the pre-agricultural
   age had in fact a much better life than the harried computer user of the present.

   We believe that the question of whether progress objectively exists can be
   approached scientifically. An analysis of progress should be based on a
   well-founded theoretical framework, such as the theory of evolution, which at
   least in our interpretation seems to imply a [4]preferred direction of advance
   towards increasing complexity and intelligence. Moreover, the theory should be
   based on empirical measures, comparing the overall "well-being", "[5]happiness"
   or [externallink.GIF] [6]"quality of life" of past and present generations. The
   problem is how to quantify an abstract and subjective concept such as "quality of
   life" (QOL). We believe that such a quantification is possible, by looking at
   more concrete and objective factors which can be shown to contribute to QOL.

   The sociologist [externallink.GIF] [7]Ruut Veenhoven and his coworkers have
   developed an extensive " [externallink.GIF] [8]World Database of Happiness",
   which collects the data from hundreds of polls and questionnaires in which people
   were asked how satisfied they are with their life. These data for different
   countries were correlated with a number of other variables, such as GNP per head
   of the population, education level, freedom of expression, etc. Not surprisingly,
   life satisfaction turns out to have clear positive correlation with most of the
   factors which we would intuitively consider as "good":
     * health, life expectancy
     * level of education, literacy
     * access to information
     * average wealth
     * democracy, political and individual freedom
     * safety
     * equality between classes and between the sexes

   Note that these basic values or determinants of happiness, which come out of an
   empirical analysis, are remarkably similar to the values formulated in the
   [externallink.GIF] [9]Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

   When on the other hand we look at statistics which trace the development of these
   factors over time, we find that on average they all have undergone spectacular
   increases during the past century, and continue to increase. For example, life
   expectancy is still going up with some 3 years for every 10 years that passes,
   depending on the country in which you live. Even less tangible factors, such as
   [externallink.GIF] [10]general intelligence as measured through IQ tests seems to
   go up with some 3 points per decade, for the 20 or so countries for which data
   are available ([11]the Flynn effect). We can only conclude that empirically all
   major [externallink.GIF] [12]indicators of progress (sometimes grouped together
   in combined indicators, such as the [externallink.GIF] [13]Human Development
   Index, the [externallink.GIF] [14]International Index of Social Progress or the
   Physical Quality of Life Index) seem to be increasing unabatedly for the world as
   a whole. Together with a theory explaining the mechanism of this on-going
   improvement this should prove that progress is an objective reality.

   See also:
     * Francis Heylighen & Jan Bernheim: "[15]Global Progress: an empirical analysis
       and an evolutionary framework" (Working paper),
     * Heylighen F. & Bernheim J. (2000): "[16]Global Progress I: empirical evidence
       for increasing quality of life", Journal of Happiness Studies [in press]
       Heylighen F. & Bernheim J. (2000): "Global Progress II: evolutionary
       mechanisms and their side-effects", Journal of Happiness Studies [in press]
     * [17]Study Group on Contemporary Progress
     * [externallink.GIF] [18]Growth Resources
     * [externallink.GIF] [19]Resources for Social and Economic Development
     * [externallink.GIF] [20]Economic Growth and The State of Humanity - Indur
       Goklany;
     * John McCarthy's web site on [externallink.GIF] [21]Progress and its
       sustainability
     * [externallink.GIF] [22]The Long Boom, a Wired article with an optimistic
       prognosis for the next 25 years
     ____________________________________________________________________________

   [23]Copyright© 2000 Principia Cybernetica - [24]Referencing this page

   Author
   F. [25]Heylighen, & J. [26]Bernheim

   Date
   May 31, 2000 (modified)
   Sep 10, 1997 (created)

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   [32]Increasing intelligence: the Flynn effect
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                                    [33]Discussion
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     * [34]Societal Progress Factor of Happiness, Comment by Peter Wettergreen
     * [35]Oops, you forgot the rest of the living world..., Comment by Wu Wei
     * [36]Oops, you forgot the rest of the living world..., Comment by Wu Wei

                                  [37]Add comment...

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References

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   2. http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/tbpp/jsimon/
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