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                               Environmental conditions
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   Perhaps the most important cause for concern, fuelling most of the prophecies of
   doom, is the perceived deterioration of the environment. It cannot be denied that
   the natural world is affected by developments such as ozone depletion,
   deforestations, species extinction and the greenhouse effect. Since most of these
   development are side-effects of economic growth, many people tend to think that
   material [2]progress necessarily goes together with ecological deterioration, so
   that we can no longer speak about global progress. Although some of these
   ecological problems are quite serious, we must make several qualifications to
   this pessimistic evaluation.

   First, although industrial pollution negatively affects our health, these effects
   are much smaller than the positive effects brought about by medical advances and
   a higher standard of living. The on-going increase in life expectancy is
   incontrovertible proof of this assertion. The fear for different chemical
   products released in the environment by human activities is often out of
   proportion with the objective risks. One reason for this is that people tend to
   overestimate the dangers of artificial toxins in comparison with natural toxins.
   The fact that something is natural does not mean that it is safe: the traditional
   tests for carcinogenicity find a similar proportion of potentially
   cancer-producing chemicals among natural as among artificial products (Ames &
   Gold, 1997). The best way to reduce mortality from cancer and other "modern"
   diseases is to promote a more healthy life-style: regular exercise, no smoking,
   plenty of fruit and vegetables, and reduced consumption of red meat, saturated
   fats and refined sugars. These simple measures are likely to add several years to
   our life-expectancy, much more than any reduction in pollution or pesticide use
   could (Ames & Gold, 1997).

   Second, although pollution on the world scale is still increasing, there is a
   clear trend towards decrease in the developed countries. Statistics for air and
   water pollution in major cities and regions in Europe and North America show a
   consistent improvement over the last decades (Simon, 1995). The London smog,
   which was a notorious killer in the beginning of the 20th century, has all but
   disappeared. At the same time, the Thames river is teeming with fish again. As
   economy and technology advance, more money and better techniques become available
   for minimizing pollution. As the general quality of life increases, people are
   less willing to undergo the effects of pollution, and more motivated to enjoy a
   pleasant, natural environment. This leads to more stringent laws on emission of
   pollutants, and to more encompassing disposal and recycling schemes. There is no
   reason why the same development would not take place in the poorer countries once
   they reach a higher level of development.

   Third, the problems of global change, although serious, should be considered in
   the right perspective. The tackling of ozone depletion is an unexpected success
   story, where the scientific discovery of the destructive effects of CFCs on ozone
   was followed shortly by the observation of a growing "ozone hole" in the
   atmosphere, and by an international treaty for the phasing out of CFC production.
   The release of CFCs has been significantly reduced since, and is expected to stop
   completely in the next two decades. The ozone hole is predicted to reach its
   maximum size a few years from now, and start diminishing from then on.

   The tackling of global warming by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases is
   much less forceful, though. International agreements have as yet hardly managed
   to slow down the increasing production of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels.
   However, the dangers of global warming need to be put into perspective. Recent
   scientific developments have made it clear that the temperature of the Earth has
   undergone many large fluctuations during the past thousands of years, and has at
   times been both significantly colder (the Ice Ages) and significantly warmer than
   it is now (Stock, 1993). The hypothesized increase of the average temperature
   with 1 to 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century would therefore not be
   unprecedented. Moreover, there is some reason to believe that life and
   civilisation were in fact thriving better during the warm periods (Moore, 1998),
   as higher temperatures and rainfall increased crop yields. Though global warming
   would create a number of problems, its overall effect may be positive rather than
   negative. If there are "losers" and "winners", then international solidarity can
   be organized to help the losers. Moreover, there are still plenty of alternative
   methods to tackle the increase in carbon dioxide, from "fertilizing" the oceans
   with minerals to boost the growth of algae, to the management of forests so that
   they absorb a larger amount of carbon-dioxide (Moffat, 1997). In any case there
   are still so many uncertainties concerning its intensity, effects, or possible
   ways to avoid it, that concern, further research, and vigorous precautionary
   action are in order, but pessimism seems inappropriate.

   Perhaps the most serious environmental problem is the fast reduction in tropical
   rain forests, and the concurring loss of biodiversity. Although such losses seem
   largely irreversible, some qualifications are needed. First, loss of tropical
   forests is to some degree compensated by increase in temperate forests (Simon,
   1995). As countries in the tropical regions get more economically developed, and
   curtail their demographic expansion, it is likely that they too will start to
   invest more in forest management, while reducing their need for farmland by
   increasing agricultural productivity. Second, the history of life shows that here
   too the Earth has witnessed very large fluctuations, both in forest cover and in
   species diversity (Stock, 1993). There have been periods where over 96% of known
   species have been extinguished, yet life always managed to recover and
   rediversify. With the growing number of natural reserves, increased protection of
   wildlife, and development of biotechnological means to maintain or increase
   biodiversity, it is unlikely that we will ever come near to such drastic levels
   of extinction. The key novelty is that for the first time mankind not only has
   the power to destroy the natural environment, but also the means to save it.
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   [3]Copyright© 2000 Principia Cybernetica - [4]Referencing this page

   Author
   F. [5]Heylighen, & J. [6]Bernheim

   Date
   Sep 15, 2000

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                                    [13]Discussion
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     * [14]We will need another 3 or 4 earths., Comment by Jeremy Walker
     * [15]We will need another 3 or 4 earths., Comment by Jeremy Walker

                                  [16]Add comment...

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References

   1. LYNXIMGMAP:http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ENVICOND.html#PCP-header
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[USEMAP]
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ENVICOND.html#PCP-header
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   2. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/HOWWEB.html
   3. http://pcp.lanl.gov/ENVICOND.html
   4. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ENVICOND.html
   5. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SERVER.html
   6. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/hypercard.acgi$randomlink?searchstring=.html
   7. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/RECENT.html
   8. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/TOC.html#ENVICOND
   9. http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SEARCH.html