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   . 2011 Mar 7;6(3):e17456.
   doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017456.

Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics

   [45]Trond Kristiansen^ [46] 1 , [47]Kenneth F Drinkwater, [48]R Gregory
   Lough, [49]Svein Sundby
   Affiliations (BUTTON) Expand

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     * ^1 Institute of Marine Research and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,
       Bergen, Norway. tk@trondkristiansen.com

     * PMID: 21408215
     * PMCID: [50]PMC3049760
     * DOI: [51]10.1371/journal.pone.0017456

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Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics

   Trond Kristiansen et al. PLoS One. 2011.
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   . 2011 Mar 7;6(3):e17456.
   doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017456.

Authors

   [55]Trond Kristiansen^ [56] 1 , [57]Kenneth F Drinkwater, [58]R Gregory
   Lough, [59]Svein Sundby

Affiliation

     * ^1 Institute of Marine Research and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,
       Bergen, Norway. tk@trondkristiansen.com

     * PMID: 21408215
     * PMCID: [60]PMC3049760
     * DOI: [61]10.1371/journal.pone.0017456

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Abstract

   Background: Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are
   important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding
   variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the
   abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish
   populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment
   is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey
   availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and
   the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain
   poorly understood.

   Methodology/principal findings: We used empirical observations of larval fish
   abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean
   temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus
   morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the
   warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North
   Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any
   given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher
   growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was
   substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges
   Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found
   that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude.

   Conclusions/significance: Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing
   survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not
   the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the
   overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of
   the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival,
   leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for
   survival to recruitment.

   [62]PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

   Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

   [63]Figure 1

   Figure 1. Map of four major spawning...

   Figure 1. Map of four major spawning sites across the North Atlantic (middle)
   with time-series...
   Figure 1. Map of four major spawning sites across the North Atlantic (middle)
   with time-series (1900-2006) of air surface temperature anomaly data for each
   site.
   Clockwise from top left Iceland, Lofoten, North Sea, and Georges Bank. The air
   temperature plots highlight the cold period during the 1960s and 1970s as well as
   the warm period during the 1930s and 1940s. Air surface temperature anomalies
   were calculated from a base climatology from 1961-1990, and smoothed using a
   9-year running mean. The air temperature data were provided by Nansen Centers in
   St. Petersburg (Russia) and Bergen (Norway) and are available from their web site
   at http://www.niersc.spb.ru/en/downloads/nansensat/nansensat/.

   [64]Figure 2

   Figure 2. Time series of surface temperature...

   Figure 2. Time series of surface temperature reveal both colder (e.g. 1960's) and
   warmer (e.g....

   Figure 2. Time series of surface temperature reveal both colder (e.g. 1960's) and
   warmer (e.g. 1990's) time periods relative to the climatology (1961-1990).

   The red bar indicates the warmest year on average for the upper 50 meters (or to
   the deepest depth if shallower) while the blue bars indicate the coldest. Surface
   temperature anomalies (°C left y-axis, black thick line with circles) were
   smoothed with a 9-year running mean, and plotted with the unsmoothed surface
   temperature anomalies (°C, left y-axis, light grey), and surface temperature (°C,
   right y-axis, dark grey lines with light triangles). All time series are shown
   from 1960 to 2002 for the four studied locations in the North Atlantic.

   [65]Figure 3

   Figure 3. Frequency distribution of modeled prey...

   Figure 3. Frequency distribution of modeled prey sizes and observed monthly
   concentrations of chlorophyll-a.

   The...

   Figure 3. Frequency distribution of modeled prey sizes and observed monthly
   concentrations of chlorophyll-a.

   The relationship between prey length and prey size groups used in the model as
   suggested in are shown in a). No size interval contains more than 12% of the
   total abundance (circles). The squares show the relationship between width and
   length of the prey items, which is essential for estimating prey image size, and
   visibility to the larval cod. b) Climatological chlorophyll-a (mg o m^-3) values
   from January to December for the North Sea, Iceland, Lofoten, and Georges Bank
   stations (also see Fig. 1). Chlorophyll-a values are used together with the
   temperature anomaly data to calculate the monthly prey (mesozooplankton)
   concentration.

   [66]Figure 4

   Figure 4. Average and cumulative survival probabilities.

   Figure 4. Average and cumulative survival probabilities.

   The upper panel shows the probability density function...

   Figure 4. Average and cumulative survival probabilities.

   The upper panel shows the probability density function (PDF) of cumulative
   survival through the year. The slope of the PDF indicates the time period of
   importance to the cumulative yearly survival. In Lofoten, a short time window
   during spring accrues most of the cumulative survival during the year, while on
   Georges Bank, the slope is more continuous suggesting that a longer time window
   when high growth and survival rates are possible. The lower panel shows the
   average probability (%) of larval cod survival from hatching to age 30 days in
   warm (red) and cold (blue) years at four different spawning locations in the
   North Atlantic. The black thick lines indicate the time-period when larval fish
   0-30 days old are observed in the water column.

   [67]Figure 5

   Figure 5. The relationship between number of...

   Figure 5. The relationship between number of recruits (millions), temperature
   anomalies, and 0-group index (index...

   Figure 5. The relationship between number of recruits (millions), temperature
   anomalies, and 0-group index (index for number of juveniles).

   Upper panel shows number of recruits (red line, left axis) and temperature
   anomalies (white, right axis) as a function of year for a) Lofoten, b) Iceland,
   c) North Sea, and d) Georges Bank respectively. The lower panel shows a scatter
   plot of the number of recruits versus 0-group index (5-6 months old).

   [68]Figure 6

   Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the temporal...

   Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the temporal relationship between larval fish
   abundance (yellow) and phytoplankton...

   Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the temporal relationship between larval fish
   abundance (yellow) and phytoplankton biomass (blue).

   During the time period when these overlap (green), the larvae will have adequate
   food conditions and therefore enhanced survival probability. In years when the
   water temperature is warmer, this time-period (duration) is longer compared to in
   colder years. In addition, during years of high prey abundance (right), the
   consequences of the lag in time between the occurrence of peak food and peak
   larval production is less important. Increase in primary production in warmer
   years enables higher total production over a longer time window because
   production starts earlier in spring. Based on Figure 1 in .

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         1. Cushing DH. Towards a science of recruitment in fish populations; In:
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