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. 2011 Mar 7;6(3):e17456.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017456.
Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics
[45]Trond Kristiansen^ [46] 1 , [47]Kenneth F Drinkwater, [48]R Gregory
Lough, [49]Svein Sundby
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Affiliation
* ^1 Institute of Marine Research and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,
Bergen, Norway. tk@trondkristiansen.com
* PMID: 21408215
* PMCID: [50]PMC3049760
* DOI: [51]10.1371/journal.pone.0017456
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Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics
Trond Kristiansen et al. PLoS One. 2011.
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. 2011 Mar 7;6(3):e17456.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017456.
Authors
[55]Trond Kristiansen^ [56] 1 , [57]Kenneth F Drinkwater, [58]R Gregory
Lough, [59]Svein Sundby
Affiliation
* ^1 Institute of Marine Research and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,
Bergen, Norway. tk@trondkristiansen.com
* PMID: 21408215
* PMCID: [60]PMC3049760
* DOI: [61]10.1371/journal.pone.0017456
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Abstract
Background: Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are
important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding
variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the
abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish
populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment
is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey
availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and
the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain
poorly understood.
Methodology/principal findings: We used empirical observations of larval fish
abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean
temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus
morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the
warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North
Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any
given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher
growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was
substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges
Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found
that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude.
Conclusions/significance: Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing
survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not
the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the
overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of
the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival,
leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for
survival to recruitment.
[62]PubMed Disclaimer
Conflict of interest statement
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Figures
[63]Figure 1
Figure 1. Map of four major spawning...
Figure 1. Map of four major spawning sites across the North Atlantic (middle)
with time-series...
Figure 1. Map of four major spawning sites across the North Atlantic (middle)
with time-series (1900-2006) of air surface temperature anomaly data for each
site.
Clockwise from top left Iceland, Lofoten, North Sea, and Georges Bank. The air
temperature plots highlight the cold period during the 1960s and 1970s as well as
the warm period during the 1930s and 1940s. Air surface temperature anomalies
were calculated from a base climatology from 1961-1990, and smoothed using a
9-year running mean. The air temperature data were provided by Nansen Centers in
St. Petersburg (Russia) and Bergen (Norway) and are available from their web site
at http://www.niersc.spb.ru/en/downloads/nansensat/nansensat/.
[64]Figure 2
Figure 2. Time series of surface temperature...
Figure 2. Time series of surface temperature reveal both colder (e.g. 1960's) and
warmer (e.g....
Figure 2. Time series of surface temperature reveal both colder (e.g. 1960's) and
warmer (e.g. 1990's) time periods relative to the climatology (1961-1990).
The red bar indicates the warmest year on average for the upper 50 meters (or to
the deepest depth if shallower) while the blue bars indicate the coldest. Surface
temperature anomalies (°C left y-axis, black thick line with circles) were
smoothed with a 9-year running mean, and plotted with the unsmoothed surface
temperature anomalies (°C, left y-axis, light grey), and surface temperature (°C,
right y-axis, dark grey lines with light triangles). All time series are shown
from 1960 to 2002 for the four studied locations in the North Atlantic.
[65]Figure 3
Figure 3. Frequency distribution of modeled prey...
Figure 3. Frequency distribution of modeled prey sizes and observed monthly
concentrations of chlorophyll-a.
The...
Figure 3. Frequency distribution of modeled prey sizes and observed monthly
concentrations of chlorophyll-a.
The relationship between prey length and prey size groups used in the model as
suggested in are shown in a). No size interval contains more than 12% of the
total abundance (circles). The squares show the relationship between width and
length of the prey items, which is essential for estimating prey image size, and
visibility to the larval cod. b) Climatological chlorophyll-a (mg o m^-3) values
from January to December for the North Sea, Iceland, Lofoten, and Georges Bank
stations (also see Fig. 1). Chlorophyll-a values are used together with the
temperature anomaly data to calculate the monthly prey (mesozooplankton)
concentration.
[66]Figure 4
Figure 4. Average and cumulative survival probabilities.
Figure 4. Average and cumulative survival probabilities.
The upper panel shows the probability density function...
Figure 4. Average and cumulative survival probabilities.
The upper panel shows the probability density function (PDF) of cumulative
survival through the year. The slope of the PDF indicates the time period of
importance to the cumulative yearly survival. In Lofoten, a short time window
during spring accrues most of the cumulative survival during the year, while on
Georges Bank, the slope is more continuous suggesting that a longer time window
when high growth and survival rates are possible. The lower panel shows the
average probability (%) of larval cod survival from hatching to age 30 days in
warm (red) and cold (blue) years at four different spawning locations in the
North Atlantic. The black thick lines indicate the time-period when larval fish
0-30 days old are observed in the water column.
[67]Figure 5
Figure 5. The relationship between number of...
Figure 5. The relationship between number of recruits (millions), temperature
anomalies, and 0-group index (index...
Figure 5. The relationship between number of recruits (millions), temperature
anomalies, and 0-group index (index for number of juveniles).
Upper panel shows number of recruits (red line, left axis) and temperature
anomalies (white, right axis) as a function of year for a) Lofoten, b) Iceland,
c) North Sea, and d) Georges Bank respectively. The lower panel shows a scatter
plot of the number of recruits versus 0-group index (5-6 months old).
[68]Figure 6
Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the temporal...
Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the temporal relationship between larval fish
abundance (yellow) and phytoplankton...
Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the temporal relationship between larval fish
abundance (yellow) and phytoplankton biomass (blue).
During the time period when these overlap (green), the larvae will have adequate
food conditions and therefore enhanced survival probability. In years when the
water temperature is warmer, this time-period (duration) is longer compared to in
colder years. In addition, during years of high prey abundance (right), the
consequences of the lag in time between the occurrence of peak food and peak
larval production is less important. Increase in primary production in warmer
years enables higher total production over a longer time window because
production starts earlier in spring. Based on Figure 1 in .
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82. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
83. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Animals%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
84. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Animals
85. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
86. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Atlantic+Ocean%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
87. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Atlantic+Ocean
88. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
89. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Biomass%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
90. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Biomass
91. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
92. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Chlorophyll%2Fmetabolism%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
93. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Chlorophyll
94. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
95. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Chlorophyll+A%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
96. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Chlorophyll+A
97. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
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100. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
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103. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
104. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Larva%2Fgrowth+and+development%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
105. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Larva
106. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
107. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Phytoplankton%2Fgrowth+and+development%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
108. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Phytoplankton
109. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
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112. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
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115. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
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117. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Reproduction
118. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
119. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Seasons%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
120. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Seasons
121. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
122. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Survival+Analysis%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
123. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/mesh?term=Survival+Analysis
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125. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Temperature%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
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128. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=%22Time+Factors%22%5BMeSH%5D&sort=date&sort_order=desc
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133. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21408215/?dopt=Abstract
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155. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/disclaimer/
156. https://www.nlm.nih.gov/socialmedia/index.html
157. https://www.google.com/maps/place/8600+Rockville+Pike,+Bethesda,+MD+20894/@38.9959508,-77.101021,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x89b7c95e25765ddb:0x19156f88b27635b8!8m2!3d38.9959508!4d-77.0988323
158. https://www.nlm.nih.gov/web_policies.html
159. https://www.nih.gov/institutes-nih/nih-office-director/office-communications-public-liaison/freedom-information-act-office
160. https://www.hhs.gov/vulnerability-disclosure-policy/index.html
161. https://support.nlm.nih.gov/
162. https://www.nlm.nih.gov/accessibility.html
163. https://www.nlm.nih.gov/careers/careers.html
164. https://www.nlm.nih.gov/
165. https://www.nih.gov/
166. https://www.hhs.gov/
167. https://www.usa.gov/
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