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1.
2. [48]Staff
3. Prof Bill Gurney
Professor Bill Gurney
Emeritus Professor
Mathematics and Statistics
[49]Contact
* [50]Personal statement
* [51]Expertise
* [52]Publications
* [53]Teaching
* [54]Research
* [55]Contact
[56]Publications
[57]Back to staff profile
Publications
[58]Objectively assigning species and ages to salmonid length data from
dual-frequency indentification sonar
[59]Gurney William, Brennan Louise O, Bacon Philip J, Wheelan KF, O'Grady
Martin, Dillane Eileen, McGinnity Phillip
Transactions of the American Fisheries Society Vol 143, pp. 573-585 (2014)
[60]https://doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2013.862185
[61]Combination of genetics and spatial modelling highlights the sensitivity of
cod (Gadus morhua) population diversity in the North Sea to distributions
of fishing
[62]Heath Michael, Culling Mark, Crozier Walter, Fox Clive, [63]Gurney
William, Hutchinson William, Nielsen Einar, O'Sullivan Martha, Preedy
Katharine, Righton David, [64]Speirs Douglas, Taylor Martin, Wright Peter,
Carvalho Gary
ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol 71, pp. 794-807 (2014)
[65]https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst185
[66]Ova fecundity in Scottish atlantic salmon Salmo salar : predictions,
selective forces and causal mechanisms
Bacon P, MacLean J, Malcolm I, [67]Gurney William
Journal of Fish Biology Vol 81, pp. 921-938 (2012)
[68]https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2012.03311.x
[69]Sea-age variation in maiden Atlantic salmon spawners : phenotypic plasticity
or genetic polymorphism?
[70]Gurney William, Bacon PJ, [71]Speirs Douglas, McGinnity P, Verspoor
Eric
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Vol 74, pp. 615-640 (2012)
[72]https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-011-9679-8
[73]Stochastic growth reduces population fluctuations in Daphnia-algal systems
Ananthasubramaniam Bharath, Nisbet Roger, Nelson William, McCauley Edward,
[74]Gurney William
Ecology Vol 92, pp. 362-372 (2011)
[75]https://doi.org/doi:10.1890/09-2346.1
[76]A length-structured partial ecosystem model for cod in the North Sea
[77]Speirs Douglas, Guirey EJ, [78]Gurney William, [79]Heath Michael
Fisheries Research Vol 106, pp. 474-494 (2010)
[80]https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2010.09.023
[81]More publications
[82]Research
[83]Back to staff profile
Professional Activities
[84]MASTS Executive Committee (External organisation)
Member
1/2008
[85]Journal of Animal Ecology (Journal)
Editor
1/2008
[86]More professional activities
Projects
[87]Strategic Fisheries Research
Gurney, William (Principal Investigator) Speirs, Douglas (Co-investigator)
01-Jan-2009 - 31-Jan-2014
[88]A testable high-resolution spatial ecosystem model for inshore waters
Heath, Mike (Principal Investigator) Gurney, William (Co-investigator)
The aim of the project is to develop a high-spatial resolution ecosystem
model of an inshore area of the west of Scotland focussing on secondary
producers and their predators. We shall use a box-model approach to
represent nutrients and primary production adapted from previous work,
allied to a demographic representation of secondary producers and their
principal predators adapted from a fish-focussed non-spatial ecosystem
model currently under development (FRS funded) at the University of
Strathclyde. The model will cover the region surveyed in the FRS 1991 Loch
Linnhe programme (see diagram below) plus connecting waters; the Firth of
Lorne from Luing northwards, the Sound of Mull and the whole of Loch
Linnhe up to the narrows at the mouth of Loch Eil. The physical context of
the ecosystem model will be set by the hydrodynamics of the system. These
will be simulated using the POLCOMS model configured for the region of
interest at a resolution of about 100m. Key drivers of the model will be
freshwater inputs and winds. Although good fresh water run-in data are
available for this area for both the 1991 hindcast period (Heath 1995) and
for the present day, only rather generalized wind data exist. Since
western Scottish inshore waters are located in mountainous terrain, wind
circulation (and hence wind driven surface currents) show strong local
heterogeneity, and it will be necessary to develop a local wind model,
which can predict surface wind forcing in relation to local terrain. This
model will be developed and validated against present-day behaviour
observed as part of field data collection during this programme. The
resulting validated wind model will then be used to drive POLCOMS under
present day conditions, so that the flow predictions can be validated
against observations. The combined models will be used to hindcast flow
fields during the 1991 survey as drivers for the biological model. A key
aspect of the biological modelling will be testing against the 1991 survey
data. To this end the model will be designed to facilitate Bayesian
parameter estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Such
estimation not only locates a `best-fit' parameter combination, but also
evaluates parameter uncertainty and correlation; an invaluable tool during
model development. For this purpose we shall develop models at a variety
of spatial resolutions, running from a high resolution model at 100m
scale, which will be primarily used in prognostic mode, down to a low
resolution model at approximately 1km resolution, which will be used
mainly for extended parameter exploration. We expect that the parameter
estimation models will use a well established vertical scheme which
divides the water column into surface (above the pycnocline), intermediate
(tidally flushed) and deep (i.e. flushed only at turnover events) layers.
However, to investigate sub-tidal cycle events we shall also construct a
high resolution model with full water column representation.
01-Jan-2008 - 30-Jan-2014
[89]Population structuring of Cod around the UK; scale, mechanisms and dynamics
Gurney, William (Principal Investigator) Speirs, Douglas (Co-investigator)
Many global marine fisheries have collapsed, or are at record low levels
of abundance. Continuing exploitation and the uncertain impacts of climate
change are adding further pressures on fish resources. New strategies are
therefore required to assist in our management and conservation efforts.
One such development will be to incorporate the extent and dynamics of
spatially-associated biological differences that exist among fish stocks
into stock assessment. Such information is important since most exploited
fish species comprise assemblages of individuals that differ in their
vital rates of growth, reproduction, migratory tendency and mortality. It
therefore becomes desirable, for example, to match the level of fishing
intensity to the projected rate of replenishment following harvesting,
thereby reducing the probability that individual stocks will become
extinct. Conserving such biological differences among stocks is also
important in the maintenance of genetic diversity in wild fish
populations, so endowing them with greater evolutionary potential for
adapting to changes in the environment. A critical component of such work
involves the testing of hypotheses relating to the relative contributions
of such factors as dispersal of eggs and larvae, and behaviour of
juveniles and adults in maintaining such biological differences. By
integrating research efforts across each of the three major UK fisheries
agencies (FRS, CEFAS, AFBI) with partners in UK Universities, a NERC
Institute and an international cod expert from Denmark, we will for the
first time examine the extent, patterns and stability of cod (Gadus
morhua) population structuring throughout UK waters. We will employ
existing (microsatellites) and new (single nucleotide polymorphisms)
genetic markers to assess the extent to which individuals from different
spawning groups interbreed, and will compare these indirect methods of
dispersal with direct measure of fish movement taken from chemical
analysis of ear-bones ('otoliths') and individuals that have been
electronically 'tagged'. We will then input these data to tailored cod
population models that will test the likely effects of young-stage and
adult dispersal on observed patterns of stock separation, as well as
simulating the likely consequences of spatially-based differences in
stocks on such things as fishing effort, stock recovery and the design of
marine protected areas. The proposal will represent the first opportunity
for UK Universities and all three UK Fisheries agencies to work together
on a problem that has to take account of the interdependence of fish
stocks across large regions of UK and adjoining waters. The proposal will
generate new genetic estimates of stock separation, especially in areas of
uncertainty such as the Celtic and Irish Seas and the Southern North Sea
and English Channel, as well as the provision of new theoretical tools
(population models) than can be used to forecast the impact of continued
fishing pressure and environmental change on cod populations. Moreover,
the tools will provide information on the appropriate spatial scale and
distribution of marine protected areas and the probable rates of stock
recovery in a species that is now formally endangered and listed in the
IUCN Red List (http://www.iucnredlist.org/).
01-Jan-2007 - 31-Jan-2012
[90]Modelling Calanus helgolandicus in the North Atlantic - Andrew Speak
Gurney, William (Principal Investigator)
01-Jan-2006 - 30-Jan-2009
[91]Strategic Partnership - fish ecology, biology, population modelling and
marine ecosystem modelling
Gurney, William (Principal Investigator)
23-Jan-2005 - 30-Jan-2009
[92]More projects
[93]Contact
[94]Back to staff profile
Contact
Professor Bill Gurney
Emeritus Professor
Mathematics and Statistics
Email: [95]bill.gurney@strath.ac.uk
Tel: 548 3804
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