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   . 2006 May 4;441(7089):81-3.
   doi: 10.1038/nature04539.

Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird

   [39]Christiaan Both^ [40] 1 , [41]Sandra Bouwhuis, [42]C M Lessells, [43]Marcel E
   Visser
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     * ^1 Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 40, 6666ZG Heteren,
       The Netherlands. C.Both@rug.nl

     * PMID: 16672969
     * DOI: [44]10.1038/nature04539

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Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird

   Christiaan Both et al. Nature. 2006.
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   . 2006 May 4;441(7089):81-3.
   doi: 10.1038/nature04539.

Authors

   [48]Christiaan Both^ [49] 1 , [50]Sandra Bouwhuis, [51]C M Lessells, [52]Marcel E
   Visser

Affiliation

     * ^1 Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 40, 6666ZG Heteren,
       The Netherlands. C.Both@rug.nl

     * PMID: 16672969
     * DOI: [53]10.1038/nature04539

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   Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may
   lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we
   investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied
   flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we
   find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in
   areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the
   birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding
   birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population
   decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines
   in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food
   peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a
   widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to
   population declines.

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