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    1.
    2. [48]Staff
    3. Prof Bill Gurney

Professor Bill Gurney

Emeritus Professor

Mathematics and Statistics

   [49]Contact

     * [50]Personal statement
     * [51]Expertise
     * [52]Publications
     * [53]Teaching
     * [54]Research
     * [55]Contact

   [56]Publications
   [57]Back to staff profile

Publications

   [58]Objectively assigning species and ages to salmonid length data from
          dual-frequency indentification sonar
          [59]Gurney William, Brennan Louise O, Bacon Philip J, Wheelan KF, O'Grady
          Martin, Dillane Eileen, McGinnity Phillip
          Transactions of the American Fisheries Society Vol 143, pp. 573-585 (2014)
          [60]https://doi.org/10.1080/00028487.2013.862185

   [61]Combination of genetics and spatial modelling highlights the sensitivity of
          cod (Gadus morhua) population diversity in the North Sea to distributions
          of fishing
          [62]Heath Michael, Culling Mark, Crozier Walter, Fox Clive, [63]Gurney
          William, Hutchinson William, Nielsen Einar, O'Sullivan Martha, Preedy
          Katharine, Righton David, [64]Speirs Douglas, Taylor Martin, Wright Peter,
          Carvalho Gary
          ICES Journal of Marine Science Vol 71, pp. 794-807 (2014)
          [65]https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst185

   [66]Ova fecundity in Scottish atlantic salmon Salmo salar : predictions,
          selective forces and causal mechanisms
          Bacon P, MacLean J, Malcolm I, [67]Gurney William
          Journal of Fish Biology Vol 81, pp. 921-938 (2012)
          [68]https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2012.03311.x

   [69]Sea-age variation in maiden Atlantic salmon spawners : phenotypic plasticity
          or genetic polymorphism?
          [70]Gurney William, Bacon PJ, [71]Speirs Douglas, McGinnity P, Verspoor
          Eric
          Bulletin of Mathematical Biology Vol 74, pp. 615-640 (2012)
          [72]https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-011-9679-8

   [73]Stochastic growth reduces population fluctuations in Daphnia-algal systems
          Ananthasubramaniam Bharath, Nisbet Roger, Nelson William, McCauley Edward,
          [74]Gurney William
          Ecology Vol 92, pp. 362-372 (2011)
          [75]https://doi.org/doi:10.1890/09-2346.1

   [76]A length-structured partial ecosystem model for cod in the North Sea
          [77]Speirs Douglas, Guirey EJ, [78]Gurney William, [79]Heath Michael
          Fisheries Research Vol 106, pp. 474-494 (2010)
          [80]https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2010.09.023

   [81]More publications
   [82]Research
   [83]Back to staff profile

Professional Activities

   [84]MASTS Executive Committee (External organisation)
          Member
          1/2008

   [85]Journal of Animal Ecology (Journal)
          Editor
          1/2008

   [86]More professional activities

Projects

   [87]Strategic Fisheries Research
          Gurney, William (Principal Investigator) Speirs, Douglas (Co-investigator)
          01-Jan-2009 - 31-Jan-2014

   [88]A testable high-resolution spatial ecosystem model for inshore waters
          Heath, Mike (Principal Investigator) Gurney, William (Co-investigator)
          The aim of the project is to develop a high-spatial resolution ecosystem
          model of an inshore area of the west of Scotland focussing on secondary
          producers and their predators. We shall use a box-model approach to
          represent nutrients and primary production adapted from previous work,
          allied to a demographic representation of secondary producers and their
          principal predators adapted from a fish-focussed non-spatial ecosystem
          model currently under development (FRS funded) at the University of
          Strathclyde. The model will cover the region surveyed in the FRS 1991 Loch
          Linnhe programme (see diagram below) plus connecting waters; the Firth of
          Lorne from Luing northwards, the Sound of Mull and the whole of Loch
          Linnhe up to the narrows at the mouth of Loch Eil. The physical context of
          the ecosystem model will be set by the hydrodynamics of the system. These
          will be simulated using the POLCOMS model configured for the region of
          interest at a resolution of about 100m. Key drivers of the model will be
          freshwater inputs and winds. Although good fresh water run-in data are
          available for this area for both the 1991 hindcast period (Heath 1995) and
          for the present day, only rather generalized wind data exist. Since
          western Scottish inshore waters are located in mountainous terrain, wind
          circulation (and hence wind driven surface currents) show strong local
          heterogeneity, and it will be necessary to develop a local wind model,
          which can predict surface wind forcing in relation to local terrain. This
          model will be developed and validated against present-day behaviour
          observed as part of field data collection during this programme. The
          resulting validated wind model will then be used to drive POLCOMS under
          present day conditions, so that the flow predictions can be validated
          against observations. The combined models will be used to hindcast flow
          fields during the 1991 survey as drivers for the biological model. A key
          aspect of the biological modelling will be testing against the 1991 survey
          data. To this end the model will be designed to facilitate Bayesian
          parameter estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Such
          estimation not only locates a `best-fit' parameter combination, but also
          evaluates parameter uncertainty and correlation; an invaluable tool during
          model development. For this purpose we shall develop models at a variety
          of spatial resolutions, running from a high resolution model at 100m
          scale, which will be primarily used in prognostic mode, down to a low
          resolution model at approximately 1km resolution, which will be used
          mainly for extended parameter exploration. We expect that the parameter
          estimation models will use a well established vertical scheme which
          divides the water column into surface (above the pycnocline), intermediate
          (tidally flushed) and deep (i.e. flushed only at turnover events) layers.
          However, to investigate sub-tidal cycle events we shall also construct a
          high resolution model with full water column representation.
          01-Jan-2008 - 30-Jan-2014

   [89]Population structuring of Cod around the UK; scale, mechanisms and dynamics
          Gurney, William (Principal Investigator) Speirs, Douglas (Co-investigator)
          Many global marine fisheries have collapsed, or are at record low levels
          of abundance. Continuing exploitation and the uncertain impacts of climate
          change are adding further pressures on fish resources. New strategies are
          therefore required to assist in our management and conservation efforts.
          One such development will be to incorporate the extent and dynamics of
          spatially-associated biological differences that exist among fish stocks
          into stock assessment. Such information is important since most exploited
          fish species comprise assemblages of individuals that differ in their
          vital rates of growth, reproduction, migratory tendency and mortality. It
          therefore becomes desirable, for example, to match the level of fishing
          intensity to the projected rate of replenishment following harvesting,
          thereby reducing the probability that individual stocks will become
          extinct. Conserving such biological differences among stocks is also
          important in the maintenance of genetic diversity in wild fish
          populations, so endowing them with greater evolutionary potential for
          adapting to changes in the environment. A critical component of such work
          involves the testing of hypotheses relating to the relative contributions
          of such factors as dispersal of eggs and larvae, and behaviour of
          juveniles and adults in maintaining such biological differences. By
          integrating research efforts across each of the three major UK fisheries
          agencies (FRS, CEFAS, AFBI) with partners in UK Universities, a NERC
          Institute and an international cod expert from Denmark, we will for the
          first time examine the extent, patterns and stability of cod (Gadus
          morhua) population structuring throughout UK waters. We will employ
          existing (microsatellites) and new (single nucleotide polymorphisms)
          genetic markers to assess the extent to which individuals from different
          spawning groups interbreed, and will compare these indirect methods of
          dispersal with direct measure of fish movement taken from chemical
          analysis of ear-bones ('otoliths') and individuals that have been
          electronically 'tagged'. We will then input these data to tailored cod
          population models that will test the likely effects of young-stage and
          adult dispersal on observed patterns of stock separation, as well as
          simulating the likely consequences of spatially-based differences in
          stocks on such things as fishing effort, stock recovery and the design of
          marine protected areas. The proposal will represent the first opportunity
          for UK Universities and all three UK Fisheries agencies to work together
          on a problem that has to take account of the interdependence of fish
          stocks across large regions of UK and adjoining waters. The proposal will
          generate new genetic estimates of stock separation, especially in areas of
          uncertainty such as the Celtic and Irish Seas and the Southern North Sea
          and English Channel, as well as the provision of new theoretical tools
          (population models) than can be used to forecast the impact of continued
          fishing pressure and environmental change on cod populations. Moreover,
          the tools will provide information on the appropriate spatial scale and
          distribution of marine protected areas and the probable rates of stock
          recovery in a species that is now formally endangered and listed in the
          IUCN Red List (http://www.iucnredlist.org/).
          01-Jan-2007 - 31-Jan-2012

   [90]Modelling Calanus helgolandicus in the North Atlantic - Andrew Speak
          Gurney, William (Principal Investigator)
          01-Jan-2006 - 30-Jan-2009

   [91]Strategic Partnership - fish ecology, biology, population modelling and
          marine ecosystem modelling
          Gurney, William (Principal Investigator)
          23-Jan-2005 - 30-Jan-2009

   [92]More projects
   [93]Contact
   [94]Back to staff profile

Contact

   Professor Bill Gurney
   Emeritus Professor
   Mathematics and Statistics

   Email: [95]bill.gurney@strath.ac.uk
   Tel: 548 3804

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