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. 2010 Jul 22;466(7305):482-5.
doi: 10.1038/nature09210.
Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change
[45]Arpat Ozgul^ [46] 1 , [47]Dylan Z Childs, [48]Madan K Oli, [49]Kenneth B
Armitage, [50]Daniel T Blumstein, [51]Lucretia E Olson, [52]Shripad
Tuljapurkar, [53]Tim Coulson
Affiliations (BUTTON) Expand
Affiliation
* ^1 Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire SL5
7PY, UK. a.ozgul@imperial.ac.uk
* PMID: 20651690
* PMCID: [54]PMC5677226
* DOI: [55]10.1038/nature09210
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Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change
Arpat Ozgul et al. Nature. 2010.
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. 2010 Jul 22;466(7305):482-5.
doi: 10.1038/nature09210.
Authors
[59]Arpat Ozgul^ [60] 1 , [61]Dylan Z Childs, [62]Madan K Oli, [63]Kenneth B
Armitage, [64]Daniel T Blumstein, [65]Lucretia E Olson, [66]Shripad
Tuljapurkar, [67]Tim Coulson
Affiliation
* ^1 Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire SL5
7PY, UK. a.ozgul@imperial.ac.uk
* PMID: 20651690
* PMCID: [68]PMC5677226
* DOI: [69]10.1038/nature09210
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Abstract
Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and
population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint
responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the
lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between
phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new
methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the
yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how
earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a
longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting
shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness
components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt
increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of
environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked
increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology
can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need
for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic
environments.
[70]PubMed Disclaimer
Figures
[71]Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends in (A) the time...
Figure 1
Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1 ^st mass...
Figure 1
Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1^st mass (Z¯) and (C)
abundance in each age class for the female segment of the population. The four
age-classes are juvenile (< 1 yr), yearling (1 yr-old), subadult (2 yrs-old) and
adult (>=3 yrs-old). Subadult and adult masses are combined. Vertical dotted
lines delineate different phases of population dynamics.
[72]Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends in (A) the time...
Figure 1
Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1 ^st mass...
Figure 1
Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1^st mass (Z¯) and (C)
abundance in each age class for the female segment of the population. The four
age-classes are juvenile (< 1 yr), yearling (1 yr-old), subadult (2 yrs-old) and
adult (>=3 yrs-old). Subadult and adult masses are combined. Vertical dotted
lines delineate different phases of population dynamics.
[73]Figure 2
Figure 2
The relationship between body mass...
Figure 2
The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and
(C)...
Figure 2
The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and (C)
adult reproduction for =2000 years. Shaded areas indicate the 95%
confidence intervals, and rugs below and above the graph represent the
distribution of the body mass data for =2000 years, respectively.
[74]Figure 2
Figure 2
The relationship between body mass...
Figure 2
The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and
(C)...
Figure 2
The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and (C)
adult reproduction for =2000 years. Shaded areas indicate the 95%
confidence intervals, and rugs below and above the graph represent the
distribution of the body mass data for =2000 years, respectively.
[75]Figure 3
Figure 3
(A) Stable August log-body mass...
Figure 3
(A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
individuals for...
Figure 3
(A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
individuals for =2000 years. Vertical lines show the mean body masses.
Bars indicate the actual observed distribution over the entire study period.
Retrospective perturbation analysis of the integral projection model gives the
relative contribution of each function to (B) population growth and to (C) change
in mean adult body mass from =2000 period (S: survival, G: growth, R:
reproduction probability, L: litter size, Q: offspring mass, subscripts indicate
the age classes).
[76]Figure 3
Figure 3
(A) Stable August log-body mass...
Figure 3
(A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
individuals for...
Figure 3
(A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
individuals for =2000 years. Vertical lines show the mean body masses.
Bars indicate the actual observed distribution over the entire study period.
Retrospective perturbation analysis of the integral projection model gives the
relative contribution of each function to (B) population growth and to (C) change
in mean adult body mass from =2000 period (S: survival, G: growth, R:
reproduction probability, L: litter size, Q: offspring mass, subscripts indicate
the age classes).
[77]Figure 4
Figure 4
The relative contributions of the...
Figure 4
The relative contributions of the change in mean August mass ( Z 1...
Figure 4
The relative contributions of the change in mean August mass (Z1 to Z2) and the
change in survival curve (S1 to S2) to the increase in mean survival in each age
class from =2000 years. The proximity of the triangle [S1(Z2)] to the
circle [S1(Z1)] versus to the diamond [S2(Z2)] indicates the contributions of the
change in mean mass versus the change in survival curve. Confidence intervals
indicate the process variation estimated using the particular mass distribution
and survival function.
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* [79]Climate change: Fatter marmots on the rise.
Visser ME. Visser ME. Nature. 2010 Jul 22;466(7305):445-7. doi:
10.1038/466445a. Nature. 2010. PMID: 20651679 No abstract available.
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* [80]Climate change: Fatter marmots on the rise.
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10.1038/466445a. Nature. 2010. PMID: 20651679 No abstract available.
* [81]Differential plasticity of size and mass to environmental change in a
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Canale CI, Ozgul A, Allainé D, Cohas A. Canale CI, et al. Glob Chang Biol.
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* [82]Litter sex composition affects life-history traits in yellow-bellied
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Monclús R, Blumstein DT. Monclús R, et al. J Anim Ecol. 2012 Jan;81(1):80-6.
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01888.x. Epub 2011 Jul 29. J Anim Ecol. 2012.
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* [83]Yellow-bellied marmots: insights from an emergent view of sociality.
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Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2013. PMID: 23569297 Free PMC article. Review.
* [84]Endocrine correlates of hibernation-independent gonadal recrudescence and
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Concannon PW, Baldwin B, Roberts P, Tennant B. Concannon PW, et al. J Exp
Zool Suppl. 1990;4:203-6. doi: 10.1002/jez.1402560444. J Exp Zool Suppl.
1990. PMID: 1974795 Review.
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177. https://www.hhs.gov/vulnerability-disclosure-policy/index.html
178. https://support.nlm.nih.gov/
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180. https://www.nlm.nih.gov/careers/careers.html
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