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   . 2010 Jul 22;466(7305):482-5.
   doi: 10.1038/nature09210.

Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change

   [45]Arpat Ozgul^ [46] 1 , [47]Dylan Z Childs, [48]Madan K Oli, [49]Kenneth B
   Armitage, [50]Daniel T Blumstein, [51]Lucretia E Olson, [52]Shripad
   Tuljapurkar, [53]Tim Coulson
   Affiliations (BUTTON) Expand

Affiliation

     * ^1 Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire SL5
       7PY, UK. a.ozgul@imperial.ac.uk

     * PMID: 20651690
     * PMCID: [54]PMC5677226
     * DOI: [55]10.1038/nature09210

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Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change

   Arpat Ozgul et al. Nature. 2010.
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   . 2010 Jul 22;466(7305):482-5.
   doi: 10.1038/nature09210.

Authors

   [59]Arpat Ozgul^ [60] 1 , [61]Dylan Z Childs, [62]Madan K Oli, [63]Kenneth B
   Armitage, [64]Daniel T Blumstein, [65]Lucretia E Olson, [66]Shripad
   Tuljapurkar, [67]Tim Coulson

Affiliation

     * ^1 Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire SL5
       7PY, UK. a.ozgul@imperial.ac.uk

     * PMID: 20651690
     * PMCID: [68]PMC5677226
     * DOI: [69]10.1038/nature09210

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Abstract

   Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and
   population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint
   responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the
   lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between
   phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new
   methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the
   yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how
   earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a
   longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting
   shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness
   components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt
   increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of
   environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked
   increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology
   can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need
   for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic
   environments.

   [70]PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

   [71]Figure 1

   Figure 1

   Trends in (A) the time...

   Figure 1

   Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1 ^st mass...
   Figure 1
   Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1^st mass (Z¯) and (C)
   abundance in each age class for the female segment of the population. The four
   age-classes are juvenile (< 1 yr), yearling (1 yr-old), subadult (2 yrs-old) and
   adult (>=3 yrs-old). Subadult and adult masses are combined. Vertical dotted
   lines delineate different phases of population dynamics.

   [72]Figure 1

   Figure 1

   Trends in (A) the time...

   Figure 1

   Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1 ^st mass...

   Figure 1

   Trends in (A) the time of weaning, (B) mean August 1^st mass (Z¯) and (C)
   abundance in each age class for the female segment of the population. The four
   age-classes are juvenile (< 1 yr), yearling (1 yr-old), subadult (2 yrs-old) and
   adult (>=3 yrs-old). Subadult and adult masses are combined. Vertical dotted
   lines delineate different phases of population dynamics.

   [73]Figure 2

   Figure 2

   The relationship between body mass...

   Figure 2

   The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and
   (C)...

   Figure 2

   The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and (C)
   adult reproduction for =2000 years. Shaded areas indicate the 95%
   confidence intervals, and rugs below and above the graph represent the
   distribution of the body mass data for =2000 years, respectively.

   [74]Figure 2

   Figure 2

   The relationship between body mass...

   Figure 2

   The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and
   (C)...

   Figure 2

   The relationship between body mass and (A) survival, (B) juvenile growth, and (C)
   adult reproduction for =2000 years. Shaded areas indicate the 95%
   confidence intervals, and rugs below and above the graph represent the
   distribution of the body mass data for =2000 years, respectively.

   [75]Figure 3

   Figure 3

   (A) Stable August log-body mass...

   Figure 3

   (A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
   individuals for...

   Figure 3

   (A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
   individuals for =2000 years. Vertical lines show the mean body masses.
   Bars indicate the actual observed distribution over the entire study period.
   Retrospective perturbation analysis of the integral projection model gives the
   relative contribution of each function to (B) population growth and to (C) change
   in mean adult body mass from =2000 period (S: survival, G: growth, R:
   reproduction probability, L: litter size, Q: offspring mass, subscripts indicate
   the age classes).

   [76]Figure 3

   Figure 3

   (A) Stable August log-body mass...

   Figure 3

   (A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
   individuals for...

   Figure 3

   (A) Stable August log-body mass distributions (lines) for juveniles and older
   individuals for =2000 years. Vertical lines show the mean body masses.
   Bars indicate the actual observed distribution over the entire study period.
   Retrospective perturbation analysis of the integral projection model gives the
   relative contribution of each function to (B) population growth and to (C) change
   in mean adult body mass from =2000 period (S: survival, G: growth, R:
   reproduction probability, L: litter size, Q: offspring mass, subscripts indicate
   the age classes).

   [77]Figure 4

   Figure 4

   The relative contributions of the...

   Figure 4

   The relative contributions of the change in mean August mass ( Z 1...

   Figure 4

   The relative contributions of the change in mean August mass (Z1 to Z2) and the
   change in survival curve (S1 to S2) to the increase in mean survival in each age
   class from =2000 years. The proximity of the triangle [S1(Z2)] to the
   circle [S1(Z1)] versus to the diamond [S2(Z2)] indicates the contributions of the
   change in mean mass versus the change in survival curve. Confidence intervals
   indicate the process variation estimated using the particular mass distribution
   and survival function.

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     * [79]Climate change: Fatter marmots on the rise.
       Visser ME. Visser ME. Nature. 2010 Jul 22;466(7305):445-7. doi:
       10.1038/466445a. Nature. 2010. PMID: 20651679 No abstract available.

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     * [81]Differential plasticity of size and mass to environmental change in a
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References

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         1. Coulson T, Benton TG, Lundberg P, Dall SRX, Kendall BE. Putting
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