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   Meta-Analysis
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   . 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):37-42.
   doi: 10.1038/nature01286.

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

   [41]Camille Parmesan^ [42] 1 , [43]Gary Yohe
   Affiliations (BUTTON) Expand

Affiliation

     * ^1 Integrative Biology, Patterson Laboratories 141, University of Texas,
       Austin, Texas 78712, USA. parmesan@mail.utexas.edu

     * PMID: 12511946
     * DOI: [44]10.1038/nature01286

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   Meta-Analysis

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

   Camille Parmesan et al. Nature. 2003.
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   . 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):37-42.
   doi: 10.1038/nature01286.

Authors

   [48]Camille Parmesan^ [49] 1 , [50]Gary Yohe

Affiliation

     * ^1 Integrative Biology, Patterson Laboratories 141, University of Texas,
       Austin, Texas 78712, USA. parmesan@mail.utexas.edu

     * PMID: 12511946
     * DOI: [51]10.1038/nature01286

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Abstract

   Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated
   because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes.
   Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses
   that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions;
   however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
   reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these
   differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that
   recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses
   documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles
   (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events
   by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and
   spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century
   climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets,
   this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses
   generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change
   is already affecting living systems.

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